The lethal effects of phasing out a combustion engine
The unit looks different. Some auto manufacturers and countries want to end the combustion engine by 2040 at the latest. Others see it as premature. According to analysts at management consultancy Berylls, the future shape of leadership in Europe will not be decided anyway.
request six car maker On the occasion of the Climate Summit in Glasgow deserves all the honors. Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Volvo, Jaguar/Land Rover and BYD don’t want to sell more combustion-engined cars by 2040 at the latest. 24 countries agreed to this. But Germany, China and the United States (states like California) do not. For current Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer, the combustion engine is premature. “We want to make it climate neutral by using synthetic fuels and keeping the advantages of technology”; CSU politician announced.
The BMW boss put the matter even more rigorously Oliver Zips: “This is too short-sighted. I can only caution against taking this route.” In Zapse’s view, traditional driving technology can only be abandoned when the charging infrastructure allows the switch to exclusively electric vehicles. There is still a lot of trouble right now. The BMW chief is not alone in this opinion. The entire Stellantis group, to which brands such as Opel, Peugeot and Citroën belong, say “no” as well as Honda, Hyundai-Kia and Renault-Nissan.
If vehicles with combustion engines are to wind up violently, there is likely to be a rebound effect. Because many people will then be their own the cars Just keep going. The average life of vehicles on German roads is ten years. There are difficult economic considerations behind this “rejection”. “If the globally announced sales or registration ban for internal combustion engine vehicles were to be applied today, 43 million units, or 55.9 percent of current global sales volumes, would be affected,” explains Andreas Radics, Managing Partner of The Berylls Group.
Even if the scales tilt in favor of electric vehicles in the next few years, it is clear that structurally weak markets in particular will still rely on combustion engines for a long time. On the one hand, because the charging infrastructure in these regions is not yet sufficiently developed, and on the other hand, because people simply cannot buy a new electric car. So who is it vehicles With combustion engines he prematurely expels him from the program, shuts down sources of income. “For OEMs, the extended period means they will have to drive on multiple tracks for many years to come. On the one hand, they need a compelling lineup of e-cars, especially for major cities. To serve rural areas and infrastructure,” says Andreas Radics, “For suppliers Premium models are very expensive, this may be a possibility, and for volume manufacturers, the decision against combustion engines means a tough cut.”
E-fuel could be one way out of this dilemma. Despite the great efforts of Porsche, for example, it is still not known whether synthetic fuels can be produced in sufficiently large quantities and, above all, it is economically possible to make Internal combustion engines To create a climate neutral future.
Even if Europe is keen to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, China’s driving music for the future will be played anyway. “In the end, the embargo measures imposed by many small countries, including Germany, should be evaluated positively, but are of secondary importance to global development. Even if more and more countries are considering such a ban or want to push it forward, the China will think about it. Decide what the powertrain will look like in the future,” says Andreas Radix. Strategists there quickly realized that the economic recovery could not be sustained by focusing on electric mobility. After all, Chinese manufacturers also want to sell cars outside their country. In the country too, there is good reason to keep the combustion engine for a while in order to ensure the stability of prosperity for the middle class.
However: by 2035, all new cars sold in the world’s largest car market should be powered by “new energies”. This means an equal division into electric vehicles, fuel cells or plug-in hybrid vehicles on the one hand, and hybrid vehicles on the other. From this it is already clear that the combustion engine will remain active in China for a while. Especially since the switch to purely electric mobility is not planned until 2060. Much later than previously assumed.